Fall Shows Air in Uncertain Business Climate

Broadcast Networks Tense as Fall Series Premiere; Leno Show Looms

Sep 21, 2009

The 2009 fall premiere season begins in earnest this week; broadcast networks wait to see how new fall TV performs, especially against "The Jay Leno Show."

Coming off dismal summer ratings, broadcast networks need fall series to perform. And if they could smack around The Jay Leno Show, that'd be good, too.

Overall, the new fall lineup seems quite conventional – brand extensions like the NCIS-spin-off, remakes like Melrose Place and V, and the usual slew of forgettable procedurals. Oh, and quite a few new comedies. With the firestorm over The Jay Leno Show airing every weeknight at 10pm – replacing an hour of scripted fare each night – NBC has been touting that Americans want to watch comedy. They'll certainly have options once all the new shows air.

Some fall shows have already premiered, notably many of the CW's shows. NBC also got a jump on the official season start and premiered a few shows last week. The performance of those shows – after the low volume of summer programming – already has the industry speculating about possible timeslot moves, additional episode orders, and how Leno will perform when it has actual competition.

Variety's article, TV biz nervous as fall season begins, points out that The Jay Leno Show's "first-week ratings came in right around expectations – peaking and dipping depending on the night, the competition and the lead-in." That's notable because it means the show's performance is variable – viewers are not tuning in despite the competition. And since the show has had no real competition save for on a few nights, it means Leno can be beaten. Which the other networks would like to do. Desperately.

As 10pm shows come back, especially on procedural powerhouse CBS, The Jay Leno Show is expected to take a hit. How big of a hit can't be predicted, so that just leaves the endless speculation of broadcast networks in limbo. In lieu of that, here are the fall series whose performance is also important, business-wise.

Fall Shows to Track

Some shows have gotten more attention, more marketing support, more notoriety than others. Here are a few of these notable shows: Glee, Melrose Place, FlashForward, NCIS: Los Angeles, and Modern Family along with returners, House, Castle, and Dollhouse.

Glee technically premiered at the end of last season and its return was controversial. Fox chose to air it instead of preempting it for President Obama's speech. Some point to a political motive, but the monetary one is most convincing: Fox spent a lot of money on a big promotional push for the premiere on 9/9/09 and it didn't want that money to go to waste. It's performed well since then, especially in desirable demos. How it holds up against real competition will be interesting to watch.

The CW premiered this reboot of the original two weeks ago and while initial numbers were okay, the second episode saw a ratings drop-off, even in the 18-34 female demo the CW targets. During development, Melrose Place was considered a sure-thing, but the ratings haven't supported that.

ABC has thrown its marketing weight behind sci-fi offering FlashForward. It's being billed as the next Lost, with a suitably creepy premise and a solid cast. And marketing. Tons of marketing. ABC wants this show to succeed.

This spin-off of a spin-off – NCIS was a spin-off of JAG – will air after NCIS. It aired a backdoor pilot last season, to solid response. It's expected to do well, especially with the lead-in of its parent show, but expectations aren't reality.

This mockumentary is the critics' favorite new comedy, leading to comparisons to Arrested Development, the critically-acclaimed but ratings-bereft show on Fox. Then again, it has also been compared to The Office, a solid show for NBC, so who knows?

House is one of TV's big hits, so why is it notable from a business standpoint? Solely because of the "Snakes on a Cane" guerrilla-marketing campaign launched over the summer. Such campaigns are usually reserved for new shows that people don't know about. House is a monster hit in its sixth season, so why did Fox feel the need to run a teaser campaign? One wonders.

ABC has long been looking for a procedural that works on its network. The mid-season Castle seemed to be the answer, but it only performed so-so in the ratings. It'll be interesting to see how it does with a fall launch.

This Joss Whedon show was renewed, but just barely. It was in a protracted fight with Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles for a single Fox slot. Dollhouse prevailed and now it needs to live up to its promise. The excellent "Epitaph One," found on the Dollhouse DVD set, offers an intriguing start.

The new fall lineup always offers fodder for discussion, but The Jay Leno Show is making this year a spectacle. Will it succeed? Will the other networks dominate? Stay tuned.

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