As the 2009 fall television season draws closer, one of the most talked about premiers is Jay Leno's new talk show. After 17 years of being the Big Cheese of Late Night television, NBC is giving him the 10pm slot Monday through Friday. It's a big move. And it could have a serious impact on prime time television as a whole.
The Trouble With NBC
Moving the Late Night king to prime time is a big gamble. It is unclear whether or not his audience will follow him to the earlier time slot. But there are many factors that brought NBC to that decision.
The first is that when Leno's contract was coming up, there was a distinct possibility that he would move to ABC. If Leno were to move to another network, NBC would have to compete against the veteran late night host. Signing him to a new contract at a new time keeps him on their network and away from the competition. If this seems overly cautious of NBC, it is, and they have good reason to be. NBC has suffered from poor ratings over the past few years, trailing behind the other three major networks in prime time. Losing Leno, and the ratings he brought to NBC, to one of those other networks would hurt them even more.
The other upside for NBC is the cost. Typically, 10pm is where a lot of scripted dramas go. ER, another NBC program, held the time slot for years, and was at one point the most watched show on television. But hour-long, scripted television costs money. Putting up Leno's show at 10pm would cost a fraction of what it would take for a typical scripted drama, and it can be done five times a week. Cheap and efficient. It's no wonder NBC sees this as opportunity too good to pass up.
The Future Of Prime Time
The cost-effectiveness of a talk show versus a drama could mean a dramatic shift in the way networks schedule their seasons. Reality shows have already marked their territory in prime time, and also boast cheaper production costs than scripted television. With NBC pushing Late Night talk shows into prime time, there is a chance that scripted television will be budgeted out of existence.
Granted, this would be quite a ways down the road. But if Leno proves to be a success at 10pm, it will force the other networks to rethink their strategies, which could hasten the decline of dramas and sitcoms. With many dramas utilizing season (and in some cases series) long story arcs, casual TV watchers will likely find Leno a pleasant alternative. This is unfortunate, as having story arcs that exceed the 43 minutes of an episode allow the writers and producers of a show to better define their characters and give their stories more depth. These efforts, however, do not necessarily pull in ratings, as not everyone is up to the task of keeping up with a show's mythology. Talk shows, however, require no such dedication.
Backlash
Not everyone is gung-ho to see Leno take over prime time. WHDH-TV, Boston's NBC affiliate, at first stated they they would not air Leno's new talk show at 10pm, saying they would instead show local news, which they believed would bring in more ratings. WHDH later backed down and accepted airing Leno's program, but the message was clear: Not everyone in the industry was on board.
By giving Leno a new time slot after his contract expired, NBC is saturating the Late Night talk show market. There is Leno, Conan O'Brien, and Jimmy Fallon, and that is just on NBC. WHDH may not be too far off the mark to worry about how Leno's ratings will compare to alternate programming. The more choices people have, the more ways they get divvied up, and the less each choice winds up with.
A Changing Landscape
Whether Leno's foray into prime time is success or not, all eyes will be on it's performance. Success could mean that scripted television, once the staple of prime time, may find itself relegated to cable and premiere channels, where more unconventional shows are finding audiences. If it fails, or does not pull in strong ratings, it show that Late Night should stay in Late Night, and NBC will be forced to find another way out of their ratings problem. Either way, the television industry will be looking to what comes next.
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