On Sunday, Hugh Jackman takes his turn as host of the 81st annual Academy Awards, where Hollywood's A-list stars mingle with some of the music industries best and brightest to help create a night of celebration for the booming industry. Many a movie and recording career has been made on Oscar night as winning a coveted trophy can mean millions of dollars in ones bank account and perhaps more importantly the chance to further ones career opportunities. However, even with all of the goodwill and industry related schmoozing which takes place at the Academy Awards themselves and the subsequent parties that take place, there still tends to be a little controversy ultimately over who has won and who as lost.
Oscars Mean Important Recognition of an Actor's Skill and Worth
The gold-standard in movie acting, directing, song writing and performance; as well as the mechanics of film making like the crafts of cinematography, sound-editing, film-editing and the like will be on display for all the world to see. A nomination from the academy of arts and sciences really is a huge accomplishment for any one in this industry to achieve. And one could argue that multiple nominations is a sign of your growing expertise importance to the films, multiple wins seems to set you apart from peers and speaks to your worth to the industry as a whole.
Predictions and the Odds of Wining
Nate Silver a statistics and math genius has made some predictions about the Oscars which he talked about on NBC's Today Show.
Best Supporting Actor (Male)
- Heath Ledger 85.8%
- Josh Brolin 0.5%
- Phillip Seymour Hoffman 4.4%
- Michael Shannon 3.6%
- Robert Downey Jr. 1.2%
Heath Ledger may be a lock because the award would be a posthumous recogonition of the fine work the actor had been doing before his untimely death. And because his performance in the Dark Knight will unfortunately be his last, look for Mr. Ledger to win.
Best Supporting Actor (Female)
- Taraji P. Henson 51.0%
- Penelope Cruz 24.6%
- Viola Adams 11.6%
- Amy Adams 11.6%
- Marisa Tomei 1.2%
An unusual prediction, but a powerhouse performance and an excellent work ethic is what just may do it for Miss. Henson.
Lead Actor (Male)
- Mickey Rourke 71.1%
- Sean Penn 5.9%
- Frank Langella 3.4%
- Richard Jenkins 0.5%
Everyone loves a comeback story, Mickey Rourke has a really good one, and this would be the height of his epic rise and fall, and then rise again in the industry.
Lead Actor (Female)
- Kate Winslet 67.6%
- Meryl Streep 32.4%
- Anne Hathaway 0.0%
- Melissa Leo 0.0%
- Angelina Jolie 0.0%
Kate Winslet has been nominated a number of times but never has won. By continually taking of her clothes and appearing naked in many of her scenes in her recent movies, (like Hallie Berry before her), she may have just secured the Oscar.
Best Director
- Danny Boyle 99.7%
- Gus Van Sant 0.1%
- David Fincher 0.1%
- Ron Howard 0.0%
- Stephen Daldry 0.0%
Slumdog Millionaire and Boyle have won all of the Oscar run up awards, and so it seems unlikely that the academy will shut Boyle or his fine film out.
Best Picture
- Slumdog Millionaire 99.0%
- Milk 0.1%
- Benjamin Button 0.0%
- The Reader 0.0%
So Sunday night, we will see if Silver's statistical algorithms are right.
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