According to a Motion Picture Association of America study, movie ticket sales traditionally dip in the Fall. School is back in session, vacation season is over and people are saving up for the holidays. Another factor may be that there are fewer good movies to see in the Autumn. The list of the top 27 movie openings of all time shows all the big winners were released in late spring, summer or at the end of the year just in time for Oscar consideration.
Fall Film Season
Take a look at the movie premiers for the first weekend of October 2008. They include "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," "Blindness," "How to Lose Friends and Alienate People," and "Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist." These are certainly not the "Indiana Jones" or "Spiderman" type movies we expect during the Summer.
Movie Studio Premier
Movie studios do not intentionally create and premier mediocre movies that will be on DVD a few months later. Films don't always turn out as expected but the studios still need to recoup some of their investment anyway. Some films are made inexpensively so even modest box office returns can make the studio's investment worthwhile.
Fall Flicks
The Fall is the time these flicks appear in the theaters. It is logical for movie studios to premier their biggest movies on weekends when they will get the largest audience. There are a limited number of summer and holiday weekends when the Motion Picture Association notes they have their biggest crowds. When those dates run out, the fall weekends are all that are left. For entertainment starved movie watchers, a mediocre film may be their only option.
Autumn Blockbusters
The key to a successful Fall film is the lack of competition. A very good movie can bomb during the Summer or holiday season if it is up against a "Harry Potter" or a "Star Wars" sequel. A pretty good movie can do quite well if it is up against some really bad ones. Movie studios take advantage of this all the time. For example, the Hollywood Insider reports that the new "Twilight" movie will premier three weeks earlier than planned. This is because the new "Harry Potter" movie is being pushed to next summer leaving a prime weekend in November without much competition.
Oscar Favorites
Not a single film in the top 27 movie openings of all time premiered in August, September or October. The Oscar worthy movies begin appearing in November and December so they are fresh in the minds of voters for all the Hollywood awards shows.
Movie Releases
Unfortunately, a film lover's only recourse to the Fall film season is to stay home and do something dreary like watch the presidential debates on TV. They can also rent DVDs. However, many that are available were Fall throwaway films from the previous year.
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